Blog Initiative

The Grass is Greener? TV fans still faithful to national heroes, but interest spreads to other teams

Not surprisingly, in countries that qualify for the World Cup, local TV viewing peaks when the national team plays a match.  In the Group Stage of the 2002 World Cup, in countries that qualified, audiences were 196 per cent higher for matches played by their home team, compared with matches where they did not play.  However, in 2006, Initiative's most recent ViewerTrack reveals that World Cup fans are taking more interest in all matches in the tournament, not just the ones where their home teams are playing.

Overall interest in the Group Stage of World Cup 2006 has grown compared with that in World Cup 2002.  Higher global audience figures have been driven by more favourable scheduling across key European and South American soccer markets than when it was hosted by Japan and South Korea four years ago.  However, in countries which qualified for both tournaments, audiences have grown significantly for matches not involving their national sides.

In fact, for the 16 countries that qualified for both World Cup 2006 and 2002 for which we currently have data, the average audience watching all 48 Group matches rose by 16 per cent.  Average audiences supporting home team matches increased by 7 per cent.  That's to say, audiences for Group matches in which their home team did not play, rose twice as fast as those where they did play.

This means that while audiences for home team matches still outstrip other teams' matches, the gap is narrowing.  In the same 16 countries, audiences for home team matches in the Group Stage of World Cup 2006 were 174 per cent higher than the average audience over all 48 Group matches, compared with the 196 per cent difference in 2002.

This is good new for advertisers, sponsors and broadcasters since with broader audience interest across all teams, they can continue to draw large TV audiences for World Cup matches even when a nation is not watching in support of its home team.

The uplift in viewing for a country's national team is smallest in the USA.  While in most countries audiences more than double to support their home team, audiences for games involving the US team only jumped on average by 52 per cent.  The USA is the only country in the world where its own country's matches are not the most watched.  Brazil, Italy and Mexico's matches all drew larger average audiences in the US during the Group stage than the USA's own games.

World Cup 2006 more popular than World Cup 2002, but audience growth is slowing as the tournament progresses

The Group Stage can be fraught with tension with teams desperate not to go home so soon after arriving at the World Cup.  All teams play three matches, once against each of the other teams in their group.  Only the top two teams in each group qualify for the next round, with the other two catching an early flight home.

While the players want easy victories, fans prefer to see tightly fought, competitive soccer with lots of goals.  The degree of competitive balance between the teams helps to explain global viewing trends during the Group Stage.

Overall, viewing for live and time-shifted broadcasts of the 48 matches during the Group Stage across 38 markets was up 8 per cent for World Cup 2006 compared with World Cup 2002.  However, the rate of audience growth varied significantly between the first, second and third sets of group matches.

During the first sixteen games, average audiences were up by 20 per cent, with audience growth fastest in key soccer markets in Europe and South America.  Viewing rose fastest there because matches were broadcast at much more convenient times of day than during World Cup 2002 in Japan / Korea.

While time zones have been a positive effect on global viewing, growing differences between the performances of the best and worst teams has lowered TV audiences.  In 2006, eight teams were so dominant in their group that they had already qualified for the second round after winning their first two matches.  In 2002, only two teams were in that position after the first two games.

The lower number of goals scored has also had a negative effect on audience figures.  Only 117 goals were scored in the Group Stage in World Cup 2006, 10 per cent less than the 130 goals at the equivalent stage of World Cup 2002.

As a result, the rate of audience growth in World Cup 2006 has slowed as the tournament has progressed, with the 3rd Group matches attracting average audiences 3 per cent lower than at the equivalent stage of World Cup 2002.

However, with many of the favorites making it through to the knockout stages of World Cup 2006, the global average audience is set to rise again during the remainder of the tournament.

Global TV audiences dance to a samba beat - Brazilian team returns to top spot in global viewing league

Millions of fans from all over the world tune in to watch the Brazilian soccer team, attracted by the exciting, attacking soccer that Brazil is so well-known for producing.  At World Cup 1998, Brazil‘s group matches attracted more viewers than any other team.  Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows that during the group phase of World Cup 2006, Brazil is again the most watched team.

As Initiative predicted before World Cup 2006 kicked-off, average global audiences have been higher for Brazil’s matches than for any other team during the group stages.  Brazil vs. Croatia has been the most watched match to date globally, with an average live program audience of 124 million viewers across 53 markets. 

Other tournament favorites are also proving to be popular with TV fans.  Germany, Italy, England and France make up the rest of the top five most watched teams during the group stage at World Cup 2006.

Tournament outsiders are less popular in terms of in-home TV audiences.  The least watched teams during the group stage of World Cup 2006 were Iran, Trinidad & Tobago and Serbia & Montenegro.  These teams failed to win any of their matches at this year’s World Cup.

Group matches involving the tournament favorites were also most popular in previous World Cups.  The top five most watched teams during the group stages of the last three World Cups were:

Brazil dropped to the fifth most watched team during the group stages of World Cup 2002.  Despite attracting a wide global fan base, the Brazilian team is still most popular in South America where many of the live matches were broadcast in the middle of the night in 2002.

Shadow cast over World Cup 2006 in Asia-Pacific - Unfavorable time zones lead to sharp slide in live viewing figures

World Cup 2002 gave global advertisers and sponsors the opportunity to reach mass audiences across Asia-Pacific for the first time. 
 
Local interest was already high with Japan and South Korea jointly hosting the tournament, and was buoyed by the unprecedented success of the South Korean team in reaching the semi-finals. With matches played live at convenient times of day for viewing in Asia-Pacific, audiences for the World Cup had never been higher in this region.

Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack, however, reveals that this enthusiasm has not extended to watching World Cup 2006 in anywhere near the same numbers as in 2002.  Of the 49 markets for which data is currently available, seven of the ten biggest drops in World Cup audiences in 2006 compared with 2002 are from countries in Asia-Pacific.

Audiences for live broadcasts of matches in the group phase are down by as much as 80 per cent in some parts of the region, with the steepest declines in China Guangzhou, China Shanghai and Malaysia.

The poorer performance of the Asian teams at World Cup 2006 compared with World Cup 2002 partly explains these falling audiences.  TV audiences are even down in Australia despite the team having their most successful ever World Cup campaign in 2006.  Even though average Australian audiences were more than four times higher for matches involving Australia than the average across all matches, their overall viewing is still down on 2002 levels.  This reflects the fact that time zones and scheduling are arguably the most important factors in determining audiences for major international sporting events.

Matches from World Cup 2006 are broadcast live late at night and in the early hours of the morning across Asia-Pacific.  It tends to be only the most hardcore fans, typically men, who are dedicated enough to watch the action live.  With the World Cup being broadcast off-peak in 2006 in Asia Pacific, the female viewing share has declined in this region.  For example, World Cup 2006 female viewing share has fallen from 49 per cent to 40 per cent in Japan and from 50 per cent to 45 per cent in South Korea. 

Audiences in South Korea are still on a par with those in other major soccer markets, despite this fall in viewing in 2006 compared with 2002.  On average, World Cup 2006 matches are being watched by 8 per cent of the South Korean population, the same proportion as are watching in both the UK and France.  Matches in the UK and France are being broadcast in primetime and their national teams are still in the tournament.  This shows just how popular World Cup 2006 is proving to be in South Korea, despite the impact of time zones.

French team win against Spain could turn the tide on waning audience interest

Over the course of the last decade, the French soccer team has entertained the world with its stylish and skillful brand of play, especially from the likes of Zinedine Zidane and Thierry Henry.  Its success has meant that its matches have in the past attracted very large TV audiences globally, compared with other teams.

Hundreds of millions of fans globally saw France’s games when they hosted World Cup 1998.  At that tournament, their matches were the second most watched globally, behind only the ever-popular Brazil.  With Brazil naturally not playing at Euro 2000, France’s matches were the most watched of all at that tournament, when France added the European crown to their world title.

Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack, however, shows that until now the French team has not attracted TV viewers around the world in the same numbers as it used to.  During their relatively disappointing World Cup 2002 and Euro 2004 campaigns, they slipped to the 7th most watched out of all participating teams.  After the first 32 matches of World Cup 2006, they were only the 9th most watched team in terms of global average viewing figures.

The Spanish appear to be particularly uninterested in France’s matches at World Cup 2006.  Out of the 32 participating teams, France’s matches have so far only attracted the 26th highest audiences in Spain.  This means France’s games are of even less interest to the Spanish than the likes of Togo, Trinidad & Tobago and Paraguay.  However, this is set to change after France and Spain played each other in the Second Round.

Unsurprisingly, the French team still enjoys great home support and is the most-watched team in France itself.  The Brazilian audience also appears to enjoy France’s matches.  In Brazil, France’s matches are the fourth most watched so far.  Let's see what happens on Saturday night!

Boom time for soccer in the USA - Soccer catching on with US fans in spite of early exit for the US soccer team

With the World Cup having been jointly hosted by Japan and Korea in 2002, it was very inconvenient for US soccer fans to follow the matches during the night.  Although millions of people watched the live and time-shifted broadcasts of the tournament four years ago, the scheduling of the games did not lend itself to huge audiences being drawn in the US.

Initiative’s latest ViewerTrack shows that, with the World Cup being held in Germany this year, US audiences are booming on the back of much better scheduling this time round.  With matches being broadcast live throughout the day, average audiences have more than doubled compared with World Cup 2002.  Over the first 29 matches of this year’s tournament, average program audiences across live and time-shifted broadcasts are 4.0 million, up from 2.0 million in 2002.  Thanks to a change in the Nielsen measurement of Univision, all US viewers of that network can now be counted.  This expands the sample beyond the Hispanics only. The National Nielsen projections show US audiences now nearly as large as those in the UK, where average program audiences per match are only slightly higher, at 4.3 million people.  This is in spite of the US team failing to win a match in World Cup 2006, whereas they reached the quarter-finals in 2002.

While the Hispanic market accounts for a sizeable share of soccer viewing in the US, it is also catching on among the broader population.  Data on which team’s matches are most watched reflects this.  In 2002, Mexico’s matches were most watched among the US population, with the US’s own matches only second most popular.  This time, Brazil’s matches are most popular, with large audiences for their games split across both ABC / ESPN and Univision.

Soccer is also catching on among women.  In 2002, women accounted for only 32 per cent of the total TV audience.  That share has now risen to 35 per cent.

Top 10 most upmarket audiences for World Cup 2006

Soccer is the most watched TV sport in a majority of countries across the world.  Huge audiences tune in to watch major international soccer events like the World Cup.  Initiative expects a global live cumulative audience of more than 5 billion viewers during World Cup 2006.

In addition to attracting huge global TV audiences, Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows that in many countries the audience profile of 2006 World Cup is relatively upmarket.  Upmarket adults can be up to two-thirds more likely to watch World Cup 2006 than all adults.  Of the 41 countries for which upmarket adult data is currently available, the top ten markets with the most upmarket profiles are:

1.  Lithuania         6.  Turkey
2.  Mexico            7.  Peru
3.  India               8.  Finland
4.  Bulgaria           9.  Germany
5.  Spain             10.  Serbia and Montenegro

Relative to the overall population, upmarket adults are most likely to watch the World Cup in Lithuania.  In Lithuania, World Cup 2006 coverage is concentrated in media consumed disproportionately by upmarket adults, including the national TV station LRT, online and in the press.  With the World Cup featuring most heavily in these media, more upmarket audiences are exposed to all the action.  Interest in the World Cup is also particularly high amongst upmarket audiences due to Lithuanian soccer history.  Many upmarket adults of today were swept up by soccer passion as teenagers in the 1980s when Zalgirs, one of Lithuania’s most famous teams, was very successful.
 
Whilst World Cup 2006 has a relatively upmarket profile globally, audiences in France, Malaysia and Uruguay are less upmarket.

World Cup 2006 even more popular than World Cup 2002

Convenience is more important to consumers than ever before.  They want to enjoy media on their own terms, deciding for themselves how, when and where they consume it.  Even though the World Cup is such a major sporting event and only comes around every four years, it still needs to be broadcast at convenient times of day to attract the largest possible audiences. 

Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows that World Cup 2006 is more popular than World Cup 2002 in terms of the global TV audience, because live matches are being shown at much more convenient times of day for fans in Europe and South America.  Overall global average audiences for World Cup 2006 matches are up by 25 per cent from 2002.

World Cup 2006 has seen audience growth in many European and South American countries compared with 2002.  Live matches from World Cup 2006 are shown in the afternoon and peak evening slots across Europe, attracting far more viewers than in 2002, when live matches were shown in the morning in Europe.  Even though afternoon matches are less popular than evening matches, they are still more watched than those broadcast in the morning.  Audiences have increased the most in 2006 compared with 2002 in key European soccer markets, such as the Netherlands (+10.1 ratings), Germany (+7.9 ratings) and Switzerland (+7.7 ratings).

These increases in TV ratings in Europe and South America have more than compensated for the fall in World Cup 2006 audiences in Asia compared with 2002.   With Japan / South Korea hosting the last World Cup and the unexpected success of South Korea in reaching the semi-finals, local interest pushed Asian World Cup audiences up to their highest ever levels in 2002.  However, matches from World Cup 2006 are shown live late at night and in the early hours of the morning in Asia, which has depressed their viewing figures.  Audiences are down notably in Malaysia (-6.6 ratings) and South Korea (-3.6 ratings) for 2006 vs. 2002.

Female World Cup TV audience share has never been higher in UK

As World Cup 2006 progresses, England’s matches are attracting growing UK TV audiences.  Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows that this increase is being primarily driven by more and more females tuning into the action.  The growth in female viewing is such that the number of women watching each match is now almost equal to the number of men.

UK in-home TV audiences have grown steadily over the first three matches of England’s 2006 campaign.  England’s first two victories against Paraguay and Trinidad and Tobago drew UK programme audiences of 8.8 million viewers and 11.3 million viewers respectively.  England’s draw against Sweden on Tuesday night attracted the highest UK audience of the World Cup so far with 14.4 million viewers.

It is mainly women who are fuelling this audience growth.  The UK audience for England’s first match against Paraguay was 40 per cent female, rising to 45 per cent female for England vs. Trinidad and Tobago.  The female share of viewing has never been higher for any of England’s matches in the last three World Cups than it was for England vs. Sweden last night - 47 per cent of the UK audience was female. 

Why is the female viewing share rising in the UK?  While many female fans are hardcore soccer supporters, women are more likely to be casual soccer fans than men.  They are more likely to only be interested in soccer when it becomes a cultural event of national importance.  With the media frenzy around the World Cup now in full force, these female viewers are being drawn to the pitch action. 

As England progress into the knockout stages of the 2006 World Cup and overall levels of interest continue to rise, the female viewing share is likely to keep on rising.

Soccer - a young man's game? World Cup 2006 is more popular among men aged 35+ than men aged 16-34

The World Cup is one of the two global sporting events which make the largest contribution to the size of the global advertising market (the other being the Summer Olympics).  Many advertisers and sponsors invest millions of dollars in the tournament because of the opportunity it affords to reach young men.  Many young men become heavy TV viewers for the duration of the World Cup, having been light TV viewers at other times of the year.

While the data from Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows that the 2006 World Cup has indeed been extremely popular among men aged 16-34, TV coverage been even more popular for men aged over 35.  On average, 6 per cent of all men aged 16-34 have watched each match in-home on TV so far. This rises to an average of 9 per cent of men over 35.  This means that men aged over 35 are 46 per cent more likely to watch an average World Cup match in their homes on TV than men aged 16-34.

However, men aged over 35 tend to be heavier TV viewers than younger men and so are easier for TV advertisers to reach.  With opportunities to reach young men more rare, the World Cup is still an incredibly attractive proposition for connecting with the younger male audience.

Out of the 43 countries for which demographic data is currently available, in six countries men aged 16-34 are more likely to watch than men over 35.  These six markets are Australia, Japan, USA, India, Peru and Malaysia.  In relatively new soccer markets like Australia and USA, young men tend to be the trendsetters in developing a taste for soccer.  With less heritage in the game, older generations in these countries are less likely to have an interest in following soccer at the World Cup.