Blog Initiative

South America rules World Cup TV viewing

Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows that South America has been restored as the highest World Cup TV viewing region in 2006.  South America had previously enjoyed the highest World Cup audience by region in 1998, but was overtaken in 2002 by Asia-Pacific and Europe.

World Cup 2002 was very much the domain of Asia-Pacific, with TV audiences soaring to an average of 11 ratings per match, the highest of any region.  Audiences were boosted by Japan and South Korea jointly hosting the tournament, and South Korea enjoying unprecedented success on the pitch.  By contrast, viewers in Europe and South America had to watch live matches at inconvenient times of day, depressing their average audiences to 9 ratings and 8 ratings respectively.

This regional ordering from 2002 has been completely reversed at World Cup 2006.  South America currently has the highest average World Cup audience (11 ratings), closely followed by Europe (10 ratings).  Audiences in these two regions have responded to the much more favorable broadcasting arrangements in 2006 compared with 2002.  Audiences in Asia-Pacific have fallen to 7 ratings for World Cup 2006, highlighting just how important it is for soccer fans to be able to watch live soccer matches to maximize viewing figures.

This time zone effect has been exacerbated by differences in team performances by region.  Whilst most teams from Asia, apart from South Korea, are struggling to reach the second round in 2006, South American audiences have been buoyed by the dominant performances of Argentina.  Argentina is currently the highest rating market of World Cup 2006.

UK falling down through the European TV ratings league

Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows that the UK is continuing to lose ground to the rest of Europe in the battle for World Cup TV audiences.  This is in spite of England arguably having their best chance in recent years of winning the World Cup.
 
The UK World Cup audience was fourth highest in Europe by percentage of the population in 1998.  By 2002, the UK had slipped to tenth place.  Now, for the first 29 matches of Germany 2006, UK audiences are only thirteenth highest in Europe.

Whilst the UK World Cup TV audience is growing – 25 per cent more people are watching this year compared with 2002 – the audiences in other European countries are growing even more rapidly.  Surprisingly, the relative lack of support for England in terms of in-home viewing in the UK is partly responsible.  In other European countries with teams playing in the World Cup, an average of 28 per cent of the population has been watching their teams on TV.  In the UK, only 18 per cent of the population has watched England play so far, a difference of 10 percentage points.

These audiences may be deceptively low, however, given one quarter of the UK population lives outside of England.  The Welsh, Scots and Irish are less likely to support the England team than the English, and hence are less likely to watch their matches on TV.  UK audiences may also have been depressed by the exceptionally warm weather, which has encouraged out-of-home viewing.

There is still plenty of time for UK audiences to recover their position in the European audience league given England has already qualified for the second round.

Audiences for World Cup afternoon matches fall massively in 2006

For the early stages of the World Cup, fans are treated to three live matches per day, kicking off local time in Germany in the afternoon, early evening and late evening.  Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows that TV viewers are becoming more sensitive to the time of day when these matches are broadcast compared with previous World Cups.  More than ever before, audiences are likely to watch the evening rather than the afternoon matches.
 
Across 28 surveyed countries for which data is currently available, the average match audience for Germany 2006 has fallen by 14 per cent compared with France 1998.  This was the last World Cup held on European soil with similar scheduling.  However, the average audience for afternoon matches has fallen by a staggering 38 per cent across these 28 countries – equivalent to a loss of 21 million viewers.  This huge drop in viewing for the afternoon matches is largely responsible for the overall decrease in viewing in 2006 from 1998.  This comparison by time of day cannot be made for Japan / South Korea 2002 because of the different time zones of the host nations.
 
At the start of France 1998, TV viewers were largely indifferent between matches scheduled in the afternoon and early evening.  Late evening matches, broadcast in peak in key soccer markets in Europe, attracted the largest audiences with 18 per cent more viewers globally tuning in than for games earlier in the day.

For Germany 2006, viewer sensitivity to the time of day is much more pronounced.  28 per cent more viewers are tuning in for the early evening matches compared with afternoon matches, and a further 27 per cent more viewers for the late evening match compared with the early evening match.

UK World Cup viewing up sharply in 2006

Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows that World Cup 2006 TV audiences in the UK are 40 per cent higher than for World Cup 2002.

This sharp audience growth has been driven by the World Cup being held in Germany this year, whereas the 2002 tournament was held in Japan / Korea.  This has meant that matches have been scheduled at far more convenient times of day for in-home viewers this year, with games in the afternoon / evening.  Most matches four years ago were broadcast in the morning.

The most watched match in the UK in World Cup 2006 so far was England’s game against Trinidad, which drew an average programme audience of 11.3 million people.  This was the most watched TV sporting event of the year to date, beating the year’s previous highest rating sports programme, which was Barcelona vs. Arsenal in the Champions League final.  That was watched by an average programme audience of 10.5 million people across ITV1 and Sky Sports 1.

However, while average UK audiences across the first twenty matches are significantly higher than four years ago, the number of in-home viewers for England’s matches has fallen compared with World Cup 2002.  England’s first game in 2002, a 1-1 draw with Sweden, was watched by 12.6 million individuals.  That was 43 per cent more people than the 8.8 million who watched England’s 1-0 victory over Paraguay in their first game of World Cup 2006.

England’s second match in 2002, a 1-0 victory over Argentina, was also watched by more people than their second game of 2006, a 2-0 defeat of Trinidad & Tobago.  The former drew an average programme audience of 11.9 million, which was 5 per cent more than watched the England vs. Trinidad game.

UK in-home viewing figures for England’s first two games have arguably been depressed by a spell of exceptionally warm weather, which has encouraged fans to watch out-of-home.

East meets West - World Cup 2006 just as popular in Central and Eastern Europe as it is in Western Europe

Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows that World Cup TV audiences in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) match those in Western Europe.  What’s so surprising about this fact is that CEE only has five participating teams, whereas Western Europe has almost double, with nine teams playing.

Croatia, which does have a team participating in the tournament, has enjoyed the highest average match audience so far out of all European countries across the board, with 18 per cent of their population on average watching each match.  This is 4 percentage points higher than in Germany, the host nation, where the average audience per match is 14 per cent of the population.

Motivation to watch sport on TV is fuelled even further when a local team is on a path to success.  However, even though, as of 15th June, neither Serbia & Montenegro, Poland, Ukraine nor Croatia had scored a goal in any of their World Cup 2006 matches, audiences in these countries are amongst the world’s highest.  This shows just how passionate their fans are about soccer.

The popularity of soccer in CEE is nothing new. 

In both the 2002 and 2006 World Cups, five of the top ten European countries ranked by average audience are in the CEE region.  CEE has also seen some of the sharpest increases in viewing in 2006 compared with 2002.  Average audiences have risen by 130 per cent in Poland, followed by Hungary (103 per cent) and Bulgaria (60 per cent).

Brazil vs. Croatia on target to be most watched match of World Cup 2006 so far

Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows that Brazil’s first match, against Croatia, is on target to draw the largest audience of the first fourteen games, surpassing even the opening game between Germany and Costa Rica.  In more than 50 per cent of surveyed markets, it was the most watched match of the tournament so far.  The average live match audience is on target to be well in excess of 150 million once all countries’ data is released.

The match was the most popular to date in a number of countries, including Spain (3.4 million individuals) and Croatia (1.9 million).  It also drew particularly large audiences in a number of countries which have not qualified for the World Cup, including Belgium, Denmark, Greece and Slovakia.  Without their own national team to cheer, it is likely that interest in these countries is transferred in many cases to Brazil, who are often people’s ‘second team’ to support.

Brazil’s matches at the World Cup traditionally draw the largest TV audiences.  Viewers enjoy watching the five-time World Champions because of the attractive brand of soccer which they play.  At both World Cup 1998 and World Cup 2002, audiences for Brazil’s games were larger than for any other team.

USA vs. Czech Republic is the Czechs’ most watched match of World Cup 2006 so far

Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows that the Czech Republic’s game against the USA, their first match of World Cup 2006, was by far the Czechs’ most watched game so far.  On average 1.3 million people tuned in to watch the match.  This was more than double the average live Czech audience of 0.6 million people for all other games so far.

The match drew a smaller average audience than the Czech Republic’s opening game, against Latvia, during Euro 2004 which was watched by 1.4 million individuals.  However, we expect that with the Czech Republic having played so well and expectations now being higher, a significantly larger in-home TV audience will be drawn for their next games.

The USA vs. Czech Republic game was relatively unpopular in other countries.  Across consistently surveyed markets, the international audience for the game was less than half that for the Italy vs. Ghana match played later that evening.  The USA vs. Czech Republic match was the least watched so far in Croatia (0.5 million people).

France vs. Switzerland is France's most watched TV program of 2006 so far

Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows that France’s game against Switzerland, their  first match of World Cup 2006, was by far the most watched game so far in France.  Despite the stalemate on the pitch, on average 13.5 million people tuned in to watch the draw between France and Switzerland.  This was more than three times higher than an average live French audience of 4.4 million people for all other games so far.

As well as being the most watched World Cup match in France so far, it was also France’s most watched program of any genre in 2006.  The highest-rating sports programme of the year had previously been the broadcast of France’s World Cup warm-up game versus China, which attracted an average audience of 10.7 million viewers.

The game was also the most popular World Cup match in Switzerland so far.  The match was even more popular there than in France, relative to the size of their populations.  33 per cent of Swiss people on average watched the match (2.3 million people).  This compared with only 24 per cent of the French (13.5 million).

Germany vs. Costa Rica gets World Cup 2006 off to a positive start

Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows an average live audience of 63 million individuals across 27 surveyed markets for the opening game between Germany and Costa Rica.  Once audience data becomes available from all 50+ markets in our survey, Initiative expects the live global audience for the match to be in excess of 150 million viewers. 

An average live audience of 63 million people represents an increase of 30 per cent compared with the opening game between France and Senegal in World Cup 2002.  Audience growth more than doubled in many countries, and more than tripled in Germany and the Netherlands.

The match drew a particularly large audience in the host nation, Germany, which also had the honour of playing the opening game.  The average German audience for the live match broadcast was 20.1 million people.  The match also attracted sizeable average live audiences in other major football markets, such as Poland (6.4 million viewers), France (6.0 million) and Italy (5.6 million).

Buoyant French viewing figures for World Cup opening weekend

Initiative’s most recent ViewerTrack shows an average live French audience of 4.4 million individuals watched the first eight games, over the opening weekend.  This represented an increase of 8 per cent compared with the first eight games in World Cup 2002.

However, France are yet to start their campaign in 2006, whereas in 2002 they played in the first match.  If viewing figures for the opening game of 2002 (France vs. Senegal) are excluded, then average French 2002 audiences for the opening weekend fall to 3.3 million.  Hence, making a like-for-like comparison of games not involving the French team, average audiences have risen by one-third this summer compared with four years ago.  It is likely that French audiences would have been even higher had the Holland vs. Serbia & Montenegro match not taken place at the same time as Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal in the Men’s Final at Roland Garros.

French audience figures for the 2002 World Cup fell by 39 per cent compared with 1998, due to the unfavourable time zones and the poor results recorded by the French team.  With a 33 per cent increase in viewing figures for like-for-like matches so far, that audience loss has almost entirely been reversed.